Appendix C: Conformity Determination.


As adopted.


Air Quality Conformity Determination


Between


The 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan,as updated


The Fiscal Year 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program


and


The Indiana State Implementation Plan for Air Quality


March 27, 2015


Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission Portage, Indiana


www.nirpc.org

image

_ _ _ Air Ou;!.[lY-9.Q!tloI!!!!!Y..D!l.\<1rmi11 tio11


Table of Contents


image

·- - -

Purpose 1

-

Applicability 1

Priority 2

-

Consultation -- 2

Content of the 2040 Compretiensive Regional Plan 4

-

Table 1. 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan Capacity Expansion Projects 5

Relationship of the Transportation Plan and TIP Conformity to the NEPA Process 8

Fiscal Constraints for the Transportation Plan and Transportation Improvement Program 9

Criteria and Procedures for the Conformity Determination 9

-

Latest Planning Assumptions 9

Table 2. Socioeconomic Totals 10

Table 3. Vehicle.-Miles of Travel 10

Latest Emissions Model 11

TCM Implementation 11

Consistency with Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets In the State Implementation Plan 11

Emission Reductions in Areas Without Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets 12

Procedures for Determining Regional Transportation-Related Emissions 12

Regional Transportation-Related Emissions Results 13

Table 4. Regional Emissions Analysis Results 13

Conclusion 13

image

Purpose

image

flir [J11 lily Co11fon11il Dot1 n11l1n1t.irn1


The purpose of this report is to document compliance with section '176(c) of the Clean Air Act as amended (CMA), and the related requirements of t11e Final Transportation Conforrnity Huie (40 CFR Part 51 and 40 CFR Part 93). The air quality conformity determination establishes the compatibility between the stale implementation plan, the regional transportation plan and transportation improvement program. Tile transportation plan includes the region's guide for transportation system development over a minimum twenty­ year period. The transportation improvement program (TIP) includes the region's choices for Federal spending on expansion and preservation of the transportation system over a four to five year period. The Stale Implementation Plan (SIP) includes strategies for attainment and maintenance of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) . The conformity determination is based on a regional emissions analysis that demonstrates compatibility among these three planning documents. The regional emissions analysis uses the region's transportation network model and the USEPA's MOVES emissions simulator to quantify the emissions from all vehicles on the future transportation system. For Lake and Porter Counties, annual emissions of nitrogen oxides, volatile organic compounds and fine particles must not exceed Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets as established in the State Implementation Plan. The system that was analyzed includes all regionally significant capacity expansion projects in 1he Lake, Porter and LaPorte County area, and significant projects in northeastern Illinois, regardless of the funding sources.


Applicability


Action Applicability

This conformity determination is required for: adoption, acceptance, approval or support of the Regional Transportation Plan (2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated) and the Transportation Improvement Program (Fiscal Year 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program) developed pursuant to 23 CFR Part 450 and 49 CFR Part 613.


Geographic Applicability

This conformity determination is required in the ozone non-attainment area, including the Lake/Porter County non-altainment area with respect to the Summer day mobile-source emissions of VOCs and NOx. Lake and Porter Counties are designated as non-attainment of the 1997 National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for "8-haur" ozone. LaPorte County is in attainment of NMQS.


This conformity determination is not required in the PM2.5 unclassifiable area, with respect to annual mobile source emissions of NOx and direct PM2.5. Lake and Porter Counties in Northwestern Indiana are classified as unclassifiable of the 2012 annual National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NMQS). However, the lnteragency Consultation Group decided the 1997 annual National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for PM2.5 applies. Lake and Porter Counties are maintenance areas for the 1997 PM2.5 NMQS.


This conformity determination Is based on the requirement of 40 CFR 93.118 (Federal Transportation Conformity Rule) for the regional emissions analysis to indicate compliance with the emissions budgets established in the State Implementation Plan for VOC and NOx emissions in Lake and Porter Counties . The regional transportation plan and transportation improvement program must not result in Summer day emissions of VOC and NOx in 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2040 in excess of the applicable budgets.


This conformity determination is based on 40 CFR 93.119 for the regional emissions analysis to indicate interim reductions of the annual emissions of Nitrogen Oxides and direct PM2.5 in the PM2.5 maintenance area, including Lake and Porter Counties. The regional transportation plan and transportation improvement program must not result in annual emissions of direct PM2.5 and NOx from mobile sources in 2015 , 2020, 2025, 2030

image

Ait Qvg litv Confoqnily llotsr111i11<1tio11


and 2040 in excess of the applicable budgets.


Priority


Transportation Control Measures (TCM) in the State Implementation Plan must be given funding priority in the FHWA/FTA approval of any action with air quality consequences . The State Implementation Plan for Lake and Porter Counties and for LaPorte County includes no transportation control measures . This confonnity determination is not required to demonstrate priority for TCMs.


Consultation


Thls confom1ity determination has been conducted with the involvement of the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) through the Federal Highway Administration Indiana Division {FHWA) and Federal Transit Administration Region 5 (FTA), United States Environmental Protection Agency Region 5 (USEPA), Indiana Department of Transportation (INDOT), Indiana Department of Environmental Management {IDEM) , and Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC).


The consultation process included the issues and procedures that are listed in 40.CFR 93.105 of the final conformity rule and the August 2007 lnteragency Consultation Guidance.


An lnteragency Consultation Group (ICG) meeting was conducted on February 11, 2015 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time by teleconference. The meeting was attended by Scott Weber, Steve Strains, and Kathy Luther of NIRPC, Frank Baul<ert, Jay Mitchell, Sara Ornellas, Korey Chu, and Jeanette Wilson of INDOT, Larry Heil and Joyce Newland of FHWA, Tony Greep of FTA, Tony Maietta of USEPA, and Shawn Seals of IDEM. Dean Munn of the Corradino Group, under contract with INDOT to update the MOVES post­ processor, also joined the call. The teleconference included a discussion of the schedule for the NIRPC 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan update. Scott Weber informed the ICG that NIRPC planned on having the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan update and 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program adopted at NJRPC's May 2015 Full Commission Meeting.


Dean Munn updated the ICG about the new emissions rates and fleet mixes gathered in 2014 by the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vehicles being inputted into the MOVES post-processor . Dean Munn said that his experience has shown that the updated fleet mix translates into lower emissions than the older fleet mix data. Whereas the older fleet mix data was gathered by a VIN-decoder, the updated fleet mix from 2014 is based on a VIN-decoder supplemented with vehicle registration data. The result has shown fewer

total vehicles in the updated fleet mix data than the old data. Larry Heil explained that the overall process of running a Regional Emissions Analysis through the MOVES post-processor is the same as before with the older fleet mix data, but that the new fleet mix data will now be used in the post-processor. Dean Munn specified that only the hourly VMT fractions in the MOVES post-processor rates would have to be adjusted based on the updated fleet mix data and INDOT traffic, not the monthly or yearly VMT fractions. Dean Munn also mentioned that Corradino had backcasted 2004 , 2008 , and 2010 emissions rates based on the 2014 Heet mix data and that it would be an option for NIRPC to use these rates for demonstrating conformity from previous regional emissions analyses. Scott Weber did not recommend using 2014 data for previous year rates because those previous years were already documented and it might open up inconsistencies . Larry Heil agreed that consistency valuable . The ICG agreed to not adjust previous regional emissions analysis based on the 2014 data.


Scott Weber then moved the discussion to the regional emissions analysis methodology and planning assumptions. The ICG agreed that 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, and 2045 would be the analysis

Nq1J_l_l).strn_ln-"-'l.A_ Hi''ll_lJ'a_1_11!LC:9.1J.l!.!l i_on

_------ image


years in the regional emissions analysis. The year 2045 was included because Dean Munn said th;:it the updated emissions rates went through 2045 even though the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan update would still have 2040 as a horizon year. Scott Weber then talked about the new capacity expansion projects that NIRPC had received applications for. A Willowcreek Road expansion project in Porter County between 700 N and 100 S received an application from Porter County. The segment of this project between 700 N and US-30 had already been included in NIRPC's 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan for completion by 2030, but the scope has increased an additional approximately 3 miles further south between US-30 and 100 S, still expected to be completed by 2030. Scott Weber also mentioned 3 transit projects that would be included into the regional emissions analysis: Triangle Transit (a new fixed-route bus service in LaPorte County), Gary Public Transportation Corporation's Lakeshore Service (a new fixed-route bus service In Hammond, Highland, and Munster), and Gary Public Transportation Corporations Livable Broadway bus service (a Bus Rapid Transit-Light seNice that would be an improvement to the existing GPTC routes 17 and 18). Members of the ICG received materials on these projects and agreed with including them in the regional emissions analysis. Scott Weber mentioned that NIRPC has incorporated the 2010 demographic infonnation from the U.S. Census Bureau into the NIRPC travel demand model, but will still use the preexisting 2040 demographic projections adopted in June 2011. Also, Scott Weber provided the lCG with 2012 model validation factors that will be used to calibrate the model based on the 2012 Highway Performance Monitoring Standard (HPMS) data for VMT versus the N!RPC model's 2012 VMT predictions.


Scott Weber next introduced the discussion of the relevant SIP budgets that the regional emissions analysis would be demonstrating conformity to. Scott mentioned that his understanding was that the 2008 Summer­ Day Ozone NAAQS and 1997 PM2.5 NMQS would be the relevant SIP budgets. The ICG agreed that NIRPC should demonstrate conformity with the SIP regarding 1997 PM2.5. Tony Maietta explained that actually NIRPC should demonstrate conformity to the 1997 Summer-Day Ozone NAAQS if the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan update and FY 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program are planned to be adopted on or before May 2015. Joyce Newland clarified that NIRPC would be running the regional emissions analysis with 1997 Ozone standards, and the ICG confirmed this. Scott then adjourned the caH.


An lnteragency Consultatlon Group (ICG) teleconference call was held March 27, 2015 at 9:00 a.m. Central Time. Scott Weber of NIRPC, Frank Baukert, Greg Katter, Jay Mitchell, and Jeanette Wilson of INDOT, Joyce Newland of FHWA, Tony Maietta of USEPA, and Shawn Seals of IDEM participated in the call. The call included a discussion of the timeframe of NIRPC's planned adoption of its 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan update and FY 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program on May 21, 2015. ll also discussed the planned public involvement period in anticipation of that adoption date. Scott Weber mentioned that NIRPC had held 6 out of 7 scheduled public meetings, and that originally the public involvement period where comments would be accepted was planned for March 6, 2015 to April 6, 2015, but would be rescheduled to March 27, 2015 to April 27, 2015 in order to account for this conformity determination.


Jeanette Wilson mentioned that she had not yet received NIRPC's FY 2016 to 2019 TIP for review, and Scott Weber responded that he was not aware that the TIP had not yet been packaged as a complete document and sent off to review, noting that NIRPC had shared detailed financial information about the TIP at its public meetings. The tCG agreed that NIRPC would package the entire FY 2016 to 2019 TIP, with highway and transit together along with this conformity determination, as soon as possible and released for 30-day public involvement in a transparent fashion.


The discussion then moved to the reason behind the delay in this conformity determination showing a conforrning 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated and FY 2016 lo 2019 TIP. Tony Maietta mentioned that he had heard that Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) being double counted was the culprit Scott Weber confirmed that this was indeed the case. The MOVES postprocessor already adjusts for intrazonal trips (trips tl1at begin and end in the same Travel Analysis Zone in the Travel Demand Model


image image


NIRPC uses and would othetwise be unrecognizable as emissions-generating trips) . Scott Weber explained that what was causing the confusion was seeing written in previous conformity determinations that the Travel Demand Model was being adjusted by calibration factors from the published HPMS estimates of VMT. While these were necessary in the pre-MOVES era, the MOVES post-processor adjustment made them no longer necessary. He ndmitted to not applying these to past conformity

determinations but mistakenly applied them to attempt to show the conformity determination for the present 2040 CRP update and FY 2016 to 2019 TIP . That resulted in a SIP budget violation for voe in 2020,

which has since been correGted for by removing the HPMS calibration factors.


Scott Weber then mentioned that since the emissions inventory results in Table 4 show that VOC in 2020 is so close to the budget, he had discussed with Larry Heil and Dean Munn a couple weeks before this call that perhaps Indiana should amend its SIP. Shawn Seals replied that he saw little reason to amend the 1997 Ozone SIP, which NIRPC is currently using for this conformity determination, since Tony Maietta mentioned that USEPA will revoke the 1997 Ozone NAAQS on April 6, 2015. The JCG agreed that unless

the State of Indiana saw amending a SlP as a high priority, there was little reason to amend the SIP,


The teleconference call ended with Scott Weber reminding the ICG of the planned May 21, 2015 adoption date as well as thanking the ICG participants for their continued cooperation and resolution of the mistake.


Pvblic consultation


In compliance wtth the adopted NlRPC Public Participation Plan, an opportunity for public comment on the proposed conformity determination has been provided. A media release was issued on March 27, 2015 that established a comment period extending from March 27, 2015 to April 27, 2015, This proposed conformity detennination is available to the public for review at the NIRPC offices, 6100 Southport Road, Portage and on the web at www.nirpc.org. The comments and responses will be inserted here at the end of the public comment period.


Content of the Transportation Plan


The transportation plan specifically describes the transportation system envisioned for the following horizon years: 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2040. An additional horizon year of 2045 was agreed to by the ICG. These horizon years meet the USEPA's requirements of 40 CFR 93,106 (a)(1) of the conformity rule.


The 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan quantifies and documents the demographic and employment factors influencing expected transportation demand. The future levels of population, households and employment imply the magnitude of development envisioned for each traffic analysis zone. These forecasts are based on lhe 2040 Growth and Revitalization Vlslon adopted by NIRPC on October 28, 2010. The NIRPC 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan was formally adopted on June 23, 2011. The current confonnity determination

is lhe first to apply adjustments from the 201O Census to the forecasts, a directive agreed to by the ICG.


The highway and transit systems are described in terms of the regionally significant additions or modifications to the existing transportation network, which the transportation plan envisions to be operational in the analysis years . The capacity-expansion projects in the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan are listed on Table 1.


Additions and modifications to the highway network are sufficiently identified to indicate intersections with existing regionally significant facilities, and to determine their effect on route options between transportation analysis zones. Each added or modified highway segment is sufficiently identified in terms of its design concept and design scope to allow modeling of travel times under various traffic volumes, consistent with the modeling methods for area-wide transportation analysis in use by NIRPC. The NIRPC transportation model


..


image image


includes network liriks representing road segments for all collector and higher functional classifications, with nodes representing all significant intersections.


Transit facilities, equipment, and services envisionetl for the future are identified in terrns of design concept. The design scope and operating policies for these transit projects have been assumed for tile regional emissions analysis, based on local transit services. The NIRPC transportation model includes a mode choice model, and the transportation model is used to estimate transit ridership from the implementation of future transit facilities, equipment and services. Table 1 lists the projects, beginning with projects proposed for completion since 2010.


Table 1. 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as Update and FY 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program Capacity Expansion Projects in the Regional Emissions Analysis


10

Agency

Town of Portor

Completion befote

2015

245

Roall

SR-49

Concept

MinOf Arterial Street

F1om

Oak Hill Road

NICTO Orkl11e

Scope

M0<1_el Re rese111nuo11

Cancellation or Travel ane Elimination

R.estor Remove11 'l SB avel lane

2015 Network (includes the existing plus committed network, plus tt1e following projects)


image

image

image

2015

Interstate Highway

Added Travel Lanes

Add 1 lone In each d1raclion

To "cy

IOOT Completion before

Road 1 80 Concept

From US-30

Scope

To US-45 Model Ripresenla


ID

Agency

INDOT

Completion before

2015

121

Road

From

SR-2

one hair mile West of 1-85

Concept

Scope

Principal Arterial Highway

Added Tra.vel Lanes

To

011 hall mle East of 1-65

Model Re msentalhln

Add 1 travel lane In each dlrecllon


image

ID

29


image

ID

236


ID

2'11


image

ID

38a

image

Agency INOOT Completion before 2015

Road SR-49 Concept Principal Arterial Highway Interchange

From one half mile N. of CR-400N Scope New Interchange to Replace At-grade lntersection

To one hall mlle S.o CR·..tOON Modnl Rc2res 1-_ ew fullls,J..!ravell ane Hl eac11 dlr l c;>n r mp atlllbu s


image

Agency IOOT Completion beforo 2015

Road 1-57 Concept lnlerstnto Highway

From At l-?.94 Scope Now lntorch1mo0

To Moll1!1 HeprnsuntetK>n New links. rnnip attributes

Agency Codar L kc Completion belore 2015

Road 133"' Avonu Concept Principal Arterl11I Strool

From US-'11 Scope Added Center Turn 1 ane

To lndusl11al Drive Model F<cmsenlation Increase capacit lly 10%


image

image

--- -----

Agency Gary Completion before 2015

Road Buffington Access 2A-3 Concept Collector Slree

From SR-912 Scope l\dded Travel Lnnes

To Casinos Modal _opresenf11i1011 Add t lravcl l ane I n c;:ich duecico 11 - ---

Nt• lhwµf.h•m lnrll:ni.1 H•• im·t f Pl\onfp q Co111111l ; :_ln1_1_ _ ------------- /lr <lunlit G1Ull!.!!:!lillY uc11r11111111t1 11


image

image

--


0

/\gtrn c.y

Gary Public Transp. Corp.

Completion before

2015

246

Scrww From To

Lakoshore South

Hammond

Loni' via Woodmn r. P!:!f._

Concept Scope

M!Xll!I Ilf')lf wnl atlon

New FiXed Route Bus Service Added Fixed Roule Transit Service Add ranslt 111e on Rom!Links


L

Agency Se1vice From To

Michigan Clly Tnrnslt Completion before Triangle Transit Concept Ml<ltiigan Clfy Scope

Porte and PWesw1ll odel Rceresenralio

image

2015

New Fil(ed Route Bus Service Added Fixed Route Transit Service Acid T 11si Linc on Road Links


2020 Network (includes the 2015 network, plus the following projects)

image

image

--- ---

ID A9ency INDOT Completion before 2020

243


image

ID

244

Road l-65 Concept Interstate Highway

From US-231 Scope Added Travel lanes

To SR-2 odet RceresanteUon Add 1 NB& 1 SB travellane


Agency INDOT C-Ompletlon befom 2020

Hoad SR-912 Concept Other Expressway

From Riley RdInterchange Scope New Construction

New links. 2 travel lanes in each direction, oltler

10 0.6 miles West of Michigan Model Representation expresswa)I attributes, S2.50 tollbooth

Avenve 1111r.rci1an e


image

ID Age11cy INDOT/IDOT Completion before 2020

233 Road llllana Concept Limited access ton road From 1-65 Scope New faclhty

ro 1-55 (IL) Model ReprosenluUon New 4-lane limited aa:ess toll road $0 11 per mUe


image

ID Agency INDOT Completion before 2020

234 Road 1-65 Concept Interstate Highway

From US-30 Scope Added Travel Lanes

To US·231 Model Ro rei:;entat. on Add 1 NB t. 1 SB travel lane


image

image

ID Agency INOOT Completion before 2020

250 Road US-41 Concept Principal Arterial Highway

From 93"' Ave Scope Added Center Turn Lane

To US-231 Model Ro rescntat on Increase Co'aclt b 10%


image

image

ID Agency Lake County Completion before 202.0

235a Road '15"' Avenue Concept Minor Arteria l Street From Wh1tcomb Street Scope Added CcnterTurn Lane

T_o

Crant Street Model Reprcsenlatron lncreaoo C<lp;ici_\Y. b 10%


image

image

JD Agency Mertlllvilfo Completion before 2020

105a Roafl Mississippi Street Concept Minor Arterial Slroel

From US-30 Scope Added Travel L<mcs

·ro 3"1 Avr.: Model Ret1>0011! otion /\dd 1 travellane 111 each cfireci!P!l._


image image


image

image

10 Ag ncy Munster

217 Ro;id 45"' Avenue

F1om At Calumet Avenue

Tu


image

image

ID Agency Hobart

226 Road G1"Avenue From Colorado Street

To--- S-R-51

Completion before

Concept

Scope

Model rl' rose 1 11o111un


Completion before

C0r1cept

Scope

ModalRo resenlntion

image

2020

Minor Arterial Street Intersection Realignment

l k 'llf ure i ntersection l·!!._ks


image

2020

Minor Arterial Street

image

Added Center Turn ane


image

image

ID

246

image

Agency Gary Public Transp.Corp. Completion before 2020

SetVice Lakeshore North Concept New F1Xed Route Bus Seivice

image

From Hammond Scope Added Fixed Route Transit Seivlco lo Loo via Horseshoe Casino MOdoi Re )10• 1.11 111)11 Add Transl!Lill& on Rund Lb1ks


ID

249

Agency Gary Publlc Transp. Corp. Completion before

Sorvlce Livable Broadway Concept

From Gary Metro Center Scope

To Crown Point Model R eresenla ion

2020

Enhanced Fixed Route Sus SeNice

Added Fixed Route Transit Seivice Add Transit Linc on Road Links



image

Agency Hammond

Completion before

Concept

Scope

2025 Network (includes the 2020 network, plus the following projects)


ID

240

2025

Minor Arterial Street

Added Travel Lanes

Add 1travel lane ineach dlraciion


image

Road

From

To

GostUntsheffleld/Chleago

Illinois State Line US-41

Model R

rosantabon

ID

235b

Agency Lako County Completion before

Road 45°' Avenue Concept

From Colfax Street Scope

202.5

Minor Arterial Street

Added Center Turn lane

-------T'--o'- Wcc..hc;;l.t"c"om"b""-S"lree"''-------...M:.:.:.o.;;.d.;;;.e; IRe resentatlon

lncreas Cap30•1 l> 10%


image

ID

105b

Agency MerrUlvlllo Complellon before 2025

Road Mississippi Street Concopt Minor Attetial Street

From 93"1Ave Scopo Added Travel Lanes

T_o.. ,_1_0_1"__A_v--------M'--'"o"_d;;-e0.1......;."'e"-r-"e""s_e_n.t.o.._U...o._n ___Add 1travel lane i n each dlmcllon


image

image

Ag ncy Merrillville Completion berom 2025

4 Road 101''Avenue Concept Minor Arterial Highway

[ From SR·53 Scope Added Travel lanes

. T_o M_ls_ni_ssIPP_f _St_r_om

M_o._d_ol_l_'{,p_re_s_e_n.....a._ll_on_ A_d_d

Itr l l::mo In ench directtonc:..._ _


image

image

ID Agency

96 Road

From

To

Schererville Kennedy Avenue Main Street

..!:!§.-30

image

Completion before 207.5

Concept Mlnor Arterial S1rnet

Scope Added Travel Lanes

Model Rcprcsonlalion Add 1travel l<1nc in ch direaio.;n..;.


image


image

ID

Agency

SL. Jolln

Con,pletion before 202!i

218

Road

93'• Avvr we

Concept Minor Ar terial Street

image

From Wti1la Oa f\v •ouc Scope Added Cenler Turn Lnf\e

--J

To us.i11

-od-

I no rus1:nlaUon lncreasti co ia ·11\1._\!y 10%


2030 Network (includes the 2025 network, plus the following projects)


image image

image

ID Agency Munster Completion before 2030

image

86 Road Main Street Concept Minor Arterial Street

from Burnham Avenue Scope New Construction ;ind added 1rnvel lanes

New links. 2 travel lanes in each direction, Minor Arterial To Calumet Avenue Model Re rescnrnllon a11111.>u1es, add 1 lane I tlrcctlon in exls!1n egrnt!_n t _


image

ID

214

image

Agency Valparaiso Completion before 2030

Road Vale Park Road East Concept Minor Arterial Street

From Calumet Avenue Scope Added Travel Lanes

image

2030

Minor Arterial Highway New Conslruclion

New links. 2 travel lanes in each direction, Minor Arterial allnbutes

To SUhovy Road Model Re roscntalion Add 1 travel lanein each direcilon


ID

237

Agency

Road

From

To

Porter County

Willowcreek Road CR-700N

Con1plollon Iafore

Conct1p1

Scope



CR- JOOS

Medel Hcpresenlatlon

2040 Network (includes the 2030 network, plus the following projects)


ID

Agency

Vi1lparalso

Comple on befom

2040

236

Rood

Dlvlslon Road

Concep

Minor Arterifll Street

Ftom

To

SR-2

US-30

Seopo

.1odel Rceresentalion

l\dded Travel Lanes

Add 1 tmvnl lane in each diredion


image

The NIRPC transportation modeling process does notinclude a land use model. The socioeconomic data for the traffic analysis zones reflect the 2040 Growth and Revitalization Vision for northwestern Indiana.


Relationship of Transportation Plan and TIP Conformity with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Process


The degree of specificity required in the transportation plan and the specific travel network assumed for air quality modeling do not preclude the consideration of alternatives in the NEPA process, including environmental assessment and preparation of environmental impact statements, or other project development studies. Should the NEPA process result in a project with design concept and scope significantly different from that in the transportation plan or transportation improvement program, the project must meet the tests for total annual system emissions equal to or below the level of the 2002 emissions or the applicable budgets for the analysis years, and provide for TCM priority, if applicable, before NEPA process completion.


During the congestion management process and other analyses for the capacity expansion projects in the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan, options other than the assumed design concept and design scope must


image image image


be considered.


Fiscal Constraints for the Transportation Plan and TIP


NIRPC has reviewed all of the projects in the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated to determine through project sponsor interviews and the Transportation Policy Committee that tt1e projects rneet requirements for fiscal constraint. INDOT has submitted under separate cover a document t11at describes how the proposed Statewide Transportation Improvement Program (STIP). including those projects in the FY 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program, meets fiscal constraint requirements. The Transit Operators Roundtable has thoroughly vetted the transit projects in the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated to determine that they meet fiscal constraint requirements.


Criteria and Procedures for the Conformity Determination


The lnteragency Consultation Group Conformity Consultation Guidance establishes the criteria and procedures for the Conformity Determination. The Indiana SIP includes a duplicate of the original Federal transportation conformity rule. On August 15, 1997, after the establishment of the Indiana conformity rule as part of the SIP, the Federal conformity rule was amended to provide flexibility and streamlining. On June 1, 1998, IDEM issued · nonrule policy do urnent thal provides guidelJnes for conformity determination in light of Federal amendments , The 11onrule policy document established Lile intent of IDEM to revise the SIP to mirror the new Federal amendments an to exercise its enforcement discretion to allow the features of the Federal amendments to be used.


The conformity determination for the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated and Fiscal Year 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program meets the requirements of 40 CFR 93.110 (latest planning assumptions) , 93.111 (latest emissions model), and 93.112 (consultation) of the Federal conformity rule, for conformity determinations during all periods, and 40 CFR 93.113 (b and c} (transportation control measures), 93.118 (adherence to motor vehicle emissions budgets}, and 93.119 (interim emissions reductions) of the conformity rule, for the transportation Improvement program conformity determination with respect to Summer day VOC and NOxemissions and the annual direct PM2.5 and NOx emissions.


Latest Planning Assumptions


The conformity determination is based on the latest planning assumptions. The transportation model uses the assumptions derived from estimates of current and future population, households, employment, travel and congestion most recently developed by NIRPC and approved by NIRPC. The estimates include 2010 population estimates from the 2010 Census, and employment estimates from the Indiana Department of Workforce Development ES-202 file. Trip generation rates, trip length, mode choice and other model parameters are based on a 1995 Household Travel Survey in Northwestern Indiana and compared to nationwide data. The 2007-2008 Household Travel Survey has not been incorporated into the trip generation rates for the transportation network model due to the lack of funding for the proposed model overhaul. The travel demand model was validated with respect to the year 2012 Highway Performance Monitoring System. The 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030 and 2040 population, household and employment forecasts were prepared in March 2011 and Intermediate years updated to take into account the 2010 Census ln January 2015 by NIRPC, using the latest available information.


The transit operating policies (including fares and service levels) were changed for the previous conformity determination and are reflected in this conformity determination. Changes are assumed in existing transit fares within northwest Indiana over time. The model represents tolls on the Indiana Toll Road, the !Iliana Expressway, and Cline Avenue Bridge by links that correspond to tollbooths with a fixed travel time, based on the toll amount. The toll increases have been reflected in the transportation networks.


image image



Planning Assumptions


  1. Population forecasts have been prepared by NIRPC. For the development of the 2040 GRIP, NIRPC has been allowed to use forecasts that are not constrained by the county control totals, which have tendedlo underestimate growth in the region. The population numbers show a large increase in Porter County, and a slight increase in LaPorte County and Lake County . The population, households and employment data are allocated to the traffic analysis zones and are used in the regional emissions analysis. The totals for the three-county area are included in Table 2.



-

Population

Households

Employment

2000

741,468

277,324

303,850

2010

771,815

292.477

277.584

2015

775,200

291,315

280,147

2020

827.438

337,211

302,828

2025

855,249

359,578

315,450

2030

883,060

381,944

328,071

2035

910,872

404 311

340,693

2040

938,683

426,678

353,315

2045

966,497

449,046

365,937

Year

Table 2. Socioeconomic Totals


2. The Highway Perforrnance Monitoring System (HPMS) data provided the basis for an analysis of the growth in Vehicle-Miles of Travel. Based on this data, the actual annual rate of growth of travel can be determined. For the three-county area, the rates range from -0.88% per year to 2.84% per year between 1993 and 2008. Over this period, the annual rate of growth is 1.85% per year.


Table 3.Vehicle-Miles of Travel


image

Data from the Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS)

Year VMT Estimate (HPMS) Annual Rate of Growth

-

--

1993

-- 1994

18,829,591

18,663,552 -0.88%

-- 1995 19,847,112 2.67%

1996

19,842,716

1.76%

1997 21,058,741 2.84%

1998 21,638,065 2.82%

1999 21,249,847 2.04%

2000 21,527,000 1.93%

2001 21,987,000 1.96%

2002 22,147,635 1.82%

2003 22,201,000 1.66%

2004 22, 154,000 1.49%

2005 22,216,000 1.39%

2006 22,305,000 1.31%

-

-

2007

2008

-

22,397,000 1.25%

21 ,792,000 0.98%

2009 26,507,000 2.55%

2010 20,359,000 0.48%


..


image image image


I_

2011

2017.


25,461,000 --]

26,545,0_QQ_

-


2 .28%

1.85%



3 Vehicle registra tion data have been received from the Indiana Bureau of Motor Vet1icles. These data are split by vehicle type, and have an associated date of approximately December 31, 2014. Tile Indiana Department of Environmental Management provided vehicle age information for cars and light trucks, from the application of a vehicle identification number (VIN) decoder as well as registrations by vehicle type directly from the Bureau of Motor Vehicles. This vehicle registration data have been used in MOVES, reflecting vehicle fleet age by vehicle type for smaller vehicles. For larger vehicle types, default data have been determined to be the best available fleet age information.


Horizon Year


The horizon year is 2040. An extra horizon year of 2045 was added by consultation witt1 the ICG. The 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan provides a policy oriented distribution of population and households. This distribution is reflected In the project selection system for the plan, giving significant weight to projects in the revitalization areas in G ry, Hamniond; East Chicago and Michigan City, as well as livable centers that provide for mixed land uses and greater transportation options.


The methods and assumptions for the transportation network model in the regional emissions analysis are included in The Transportation Model Documentation Report.


Latest Emissions Model


On March 2, 20·1O the USEPA officially released the MOVES model,with a two year grace period. The MOVES model was updated in July 2014. INDOT has provided a utility that prepares the output of a TransGAD model for use with MOVES. INDOT has also run the MOVES model and provided emissions factors to all metropolitan areas in the state for use in confonnity analysis. The MOVES model has been used for this conformity analysis. The motor vehicle emissions budgets have been revised to use the MOVES emissions rates.


TCM Implementation


The 2040 Regional Transportation Plan and Fiscal Year 2014 to 2017 Transportation Improvement Program are not required to provide for timely implementation of TCMs from the SIP, since the SIP currently contains no TCMs.


Consisteny with the Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets in the SIP

The regional emissions analysis has estimated emissions of voe an,d NOx as ozone precursors. The regional emissions analysis includes estimates of emissions from the entire transportation system, including all regionally significant projects contained in the transportation ptan and all other regionally significant highway and transit projects expected in the nonattalnment area in the time frame of the transportation plan. Table 4 shows that regional emissions fo1 tho ozone precursors fall below the budgets inlhe State lrnplemenlaUon Plan for the 1997 Ozone Summe Day 8-hour standard (used in lieu of an applicable 2008 Ozone Summer Day 8-hour standard because lndiana has yet to adopt a State Implementation Plan for that standard).


The emissions analysis methodology meets the requirements of 40 CFR 93.122(b) of the Federal Conformity Rule, for conformity determinations based on estimates of regional transportation-related emissions completed after January 1, 1997.

image

_ -- - _ ___AJr..•lualily Co11[l1.l::!_l]l_ly lle!erlllinal_ion


Implementation of the Lake and Porter County projects in the regional Ir nspo1l uon r1m1 r " ult in motor veiicle emissions that are below the levels of the <oipplicable Motor V hi ·1 mi sions udgels. as sho vn In Table 4_ This table also indicates that the implementation of the Lak and Port r County proj els in th regi nal transportation plan result in motor vehicle emissions that are below t11e lev I of !1 propose Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the State Implementation Plcin for tt1e PM2.5 unclassifiable area.


Emission Reductions in Areas Without Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets


The establishment of Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets that cover ozone and fine particles and their precursor emissions eliminates the requirements to demonstrate emissions reductions.


Procedures for Determining Regional Transportation-Related Emissions


Tile region I emissions analys s for lhe trans ortalion projects includes calculatlons of vehicle emissions al tile aggregate level for the entirelransport. tion system, including all regionally significant expansion projecls expected in the nonattalnment area. The analysis includes FHWAIFTA-funded projects proposed in the 'transportation plan, all lndi;ina Toll Road proiects and all other regionally significant projects which are disclosed lo NIRPC. Vehicle 111iles traveled (VMT) from projects which are not regionally signlfloant are estimated in accordance with reasonable professional practice, using the regional travel demand model and the procedure for projects that " . regionally significant.


The regional emissions analysis does not include any TCMs for emissions reduction credit. The regional emissions analysis does not include emissions reduction credit from projects, programs, activities, or control measures which require a regulatory action in order to be implemented.


Ambient temperatures used for the regional emissions analysis are consistent with those used to estimate the emissions in 2002. AU other factors, for example the fraction of travel in a hot stabilized engine mode, are consistently applied.


Reasonable methods have been used to estimate nonattainment area VMT on off-network roadways within the urban transportation planning area . and on oadways outside the urban transportation planning area. For 20151 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045 , estimates of regional transportation-rel ated emissions used to support the confonnity determination have been made using a networi<-based travel model with travel calculations performed at the indivldual link level according to procedures and methods that are available and

in practice and supported by current and avallable documentation (see The Transportation Model

Documentation Report kept at NIRPC's offices at 6100 Southport Road in Portage). lntrazonal VMT has been added to the link VMT on associated centroid connectors for the analysis. The travel characteristics were calculated sepmately for three vehicle classes: autos {light duty gasoline vehicles), non heavy trucks (Ughl duty gasoline trucks) and heavy trucks (heavy duty diesel vehicles) and separately for three time periods: morning peak, afternoon peak and off peak. Using factors provided from the Indiana Department of Environmental Management, the travel characteristics were split to represent 28 vehicle types, andlhe emissions were calculated using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet. The participating agencies have discussed these modeling procedures and practices through the interagency consultation process .


Land use, population, employment, and other network-based travel model assumptions have been documented based on the best available information. The land development and use in the 2040 Growth and Revitalization Vision adopted by NIRPC and underpinning the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan are consistent with the future transportation system alternatives for which emissions have been estimated . The distribution of employment and residences are reasonable.


·.


image image image


A capacity-sensitive assignment methodology has been used, and emissions estimates are based on a methodology, which differentiates between peak and off peak link volumes and speeds, and uses speeds based on final assigned volumes, post-processed in the database . Zone-to-zone travel impedances used to distribute trips between origin and destination pairs are in reasonable agreement with the travel times that are estimated from final assigned traffic volumes, using a feedback procedure iterated five times. These times have also been used for modeling mode splits. The network-based travel model is reasonably sensitive to changes in the tirne(s), cost(s) , and other factors affecting travel choices. Reasonable methods in accordance with good practice have been used to estimate traffic speeds and delays in a manner thcit is sensitive to the estimated volume of travel on each roadway segment represented in the network-based travel model. Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) estimates of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are considered the primary measure of VMT within the portion of the nonattainment area and for the functional classes of roadways included in the nonattainment area.


Regional Transportation-Related Emissions Results


Table 4 presents the results of the regional transportation emissions analysis for the 2040 Comprehensive Regional Plan as updated and the FY 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program including the projects as specified in Table 1. As seen in this table, the emissions are lower than the budgets in all cases.


Table 4. Regional Emissions Analysis Results


2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

voe Budget

'1 3.99

5.99

5.99

5.99

5.99

5.99

5.99

VOC Emission

9.65

5.96

5.17

3.99

3.12

2.78

2.69

NOx Budget

47.26

16.69

16.69

16.69

16.69

16.69

16.69

NOx Emissions

25.43

14.68

9.72

7.70

6.52

6.28

6.28

Ozone Emissions in U.S. Tons per Day Lake and Porter Counties


PM2.5 Emissions in U.S. Tons per Year

image

image

Lake and Porter Counties

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Direct PM Budget

374.30

374.30

188.73

188.73

188.73

188.73

188.73

Direct PM EmTsslon

319.18

182.66

132.14

113.g:r-

106.20

105.76

106.23

NOx Precursor Budget

10,486.08

10,486.08

5,472.34

5,472.34

5.472.34

5,472.34

5.472.34

NOx Precursor Emissions

9,356.34

5,630.24

3,748.99

2,953.14

2,551.00

2,471.00

2.478.12


image

Conclusion


The Summer day on-road mobile source emissions of the precursors of ozone (VOC and NOx) in Lake and Porter Counties that result from the imptementatlon of the projects in the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan as updated and the Fiscal Year 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program in the years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045 are less than the Motor Vehicle Emission Budgets established in the Maintenance Plan included in the U.S. EPA approved State Implementation Plan for Lake and Porter Counties. The on-road mobile source emissions of annual direct PM2.5 and annual nitrogen oxide in the PM2.5 maintenance area that result from the implementation of the projects in the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan as updated and the Fiscal Year 2016 to 2019 Transportation Improvement Program in the years 2015 . 2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040 and 2045 are less than the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets established in the Maintenance Plan included in the U.S. EPA approved State Implementation Plan for Lake and Porter Counties. Therefore, the 2040 Regional Transportation Plan as updated and the Fiscal Year 2016 to 2019 Transportation

image

Northw storn liuliirna R!llPJE•l Pla1111ittq Co11nnlsslo11


Improvement Program have been found to conform to the requirements of section 176(c) of the Clean Air Act Amendment and the related requirements of the Federal Transportation Conformity Rule (40 CFR Part51 and 40 CFR Part 93) with respect to ozone and PM2.5.